Energy supply structure research of integrated energy systems considering load uncertainty during planning phases of city’s central business districts

On the basis of considering the minimum load factor of the unit, the constraints for each unit are established,and the optimization model is constructed with the goals of economic and environmental protection objectives to investigate the impact of load uncertainty on the system energy supply structure. From the perspective of probability, the load uncertainty of the building complex in the planning phase is described, and the scenario analysis method is applied to transform the stochastic problem with known probability distribution into a deterministic problem that is convenient for solving and calculation. After considering the load uncertainty, the overall system capacity increases by 7%, the operation cost increases by 2%, and the annual investment of the system increases by 4%. Comparing the optimization results of economic and environmental protection objectives, the reasons for the differences in system operation and energy supply structure configuration are analysed in this paper.